嘉宾简介

唐翌博士现任香港大学商学院战略管理领域的副教授（终身职）。他的研究领域涉及战略领导力、企业创新、企业社会责任等。唐博士专注于结合最前沿的战略管理理论来研究企业高管如何影响企业决策和绩效。

唐博士研究成果发表于国际顶级期刊Academy of Management Journal, Strategic Management Journal, Organization Science, Journal of Management, Journal of Business Venturing等，以及《管理世界》《管理学季刊》《南开管理评论》等中文权威期刊。他也是《清华管理评论》的长期撰稿人。

唐博士目前是Journal of Management Studies, Long Range Planning, Family Business Review的客座主编，同时担任Strategic Management Journal, Journal of International Business Studies, Journal of Management, Academy of Management Discovery的编委。

唐博士积极参与学者社群的组织和建设工作。他是Academy of Management, Strategic Management Society的资深会员，还担任IACMR的亚太区代表，并积极参与组织全球华人管理学者社群（CMSC）各项年度活动。

讲座摘要

Overconfidence—as a well-studied executive bias—is usually negatively connoted, even though ultimate empirical evidence of its performance effects remains scarce. Theorizing on the psychological and cognitive role of overconfidence, this panel study examines when and why the forces at work may lead to negative and positive effects in a turnaround situation, where performance declines and the survival of the firm is threatened. We propose that CEO overconfidence can either help or hinder the turnaround, depending on whether this bias manifests in the incumbent or the successor CEO. Specifically, overconfidence among incumbent CEOs has a negative effect on turnaround performance as the resulting cognitive dissonance will render them deficiently aware of the need for action. In contrast, overconfident successors hired in turnaround situations experience cognitive consonance and recognize the need for action. They pursue restructuring more assertively and are thus associated with superior turnaround performance, especially when they are hired from outside of the focal firm’s industry. Analysing a panel dataset of 240 turnaround cases in S&P 1500 firms during 1992–2012 renders strong support to our predictions.